| US Libya
Foreign Policy in focus, by Ronald
Bruce, writer and foreign policy
expert |
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Following
decades of conflict, Libya and the United States
took major steps to improve their bilateral
relationship in the closing months of the Bush
administration. In September 2008, Condoleezza
Rice visited Libya, the first secretary of State
to do so since John Foster Dulles in 1953. In
November, two weeks after Libya contributed
US$1.5 bn to a newly created Humanitarian Settlement
Fund intended to resolve outstanding lawsuits
by American victims of Libyan terrorism, President
George W. Bush telephoned the Libyan leader,
Muammar al-Qaddafi, and voiced his satisfaction
with the settlement. In December 2008, Gene
A. Cretz took up his position as U.S. ambassador
to Libya, the first since 1972.
The importance of these events
cannot be overestimated. The real question now,
however, is where does the Obama administration
go from here with Libya?
A
normal relationship at last
Following centuries of colonial rule, Libya
declared independence on December 24, 1951.
An ambivalent supporter of Libyan independence,
the United States throughout the 1950s viewed
Libya less as an independent state and more
as a strategic airbase. With the discovery of
oil in 1959, the focus of interests changed
as officials began to see Libya mostly as an
inexpensive petrol pump.
In the decade after Qaddafi
seized power on September 1, 1969, Libya became
for the United States a source of regional instability.
It was, for instance, on the original list of
State Sponsors of Terrorism in 1979. In the
1980s, the Reagan administration treated Libya
as a global terrorist organization, and US officials
continued to characterize it as such throughout
the 1990s. In short, for the first 50 years
of Libyan independence, the United States routinely
failed to treat Libya as an independent state,
due the recognition accorded to any other state.
Reflecting both historical
circumstance and personal ego, Libyan leader
Qaddafi doggedly pursued the respect of the
US government from the outset of the Libyan
revolution. |
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In
this sense, Rice’s brief visit to Libya
in September 2008 was historic, not just because
it was the first such visit in more than 50
years, but also because it symbolized the US
recognition that Libya had sought for so many
years. In December 2008, Ambassador C. David
Welch, Assistant Secretary of State for Near
Eastern Affairs, told the Reuters news agency
that the claims settlement with Libya opened
“the horizon to a normal relationship
of the kind we might have with any country.”
His remarks marked the first time an American
official had stated publicly the possibility
of a normal relationship with Libya since Qaddafi
came to power in 1969.
Permanent
Interests
As for the next steps in this bilateral relationship,
it isn’t enough for the United States
simply to talk about what’s wrong with
Libya, or to ask what Libya needs to say or
do differently, as successive US governments
have done in the past. Instead, the Obama administration
must focus on what it wants from its relationship
with Libya. In so doing, it should begin by
recognizing that Libya is as important to
the United States as |
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| Muammar
al-Gaddafi, known as Colonel Gaddafi has been
the leader of Libya since a 1969 coup |
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the United States is to
Libya. Moreover, it should also recognize that
there are real limits to the ability of the
US to change Libya. What it can do more readily
is to change its own attitudes and policies
toward Libya.
Lord Palmerston (1784-1865), Britain’s
foreign secretary and prime minister for many
years, once observed that “nations have
no permanent friends or allies, they only have
permanent interests.” In private and public
statements, including a conversation with the
author at the State Department in mid-December
2008, former
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Secretary of State Rice repeated his injunction,
arguing that Libya and the United States shared
“permanent interests.” Those interests
include counterterrorism, trade, nuclear proliferation,
Africa, cultural and other initiatives, human
rights, and democracy.
Counterterrorism,
Energy, and Trade
Counterterrorism remains an obvious area of
bilateral cooperation. Long a target of fundamental
Islamist groups, Libyan leader Qaddafi in
the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks rushed
to support the Bush administration’s
war on terror. Since that time, US intelligence
officials have conducted information-sharing
sessions with their Libyan counterparts on
a regular basis. These should continue with
the Obama administration.
At present, Libya oil reserves are estimated
to be 41.46 billion barrels with gas reserves
at 1.419 trillion cubic meters. With four
rounds of exploration agreements completed
since 2004, experts believe proven reserves
will double or even triple in future years.
Libya exported some oil to the United States
in the 1970s, but Europe remains its primary
market. Nevertheless, Libyan oil and gas reserves
are of direct interest to the United States
because they ease production pressures on
its traditional suppliers.
Outside the energy sector, the United States
has never been the major trade or investment
partner with Libya. Given Libya’s small
population of just over six million people,
future trade opportunities for U.S. exporters,
with a few exceptions, will remain relatively
small. New investment opportunities exist
in areas like tourism and infrastructure development,
but the current political and legal systems
in place make it difficult for most US companies,
outside the energy sector, to pursue them.
Official US trade interests may fall more
in the area of what other countries sell to
Libya as opposed to what Americans supply.
In the early 1980s, Libya had the highest
ratio of military equipment to manpower in
the Third World. Based on recent talks with
France, Russia, and other states, the Qaddafi
regime looks set once more to reward support
from the armed forces with sophisticated new
armaments.
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